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Old 10-11-2008, 02:48 AM
barramac barramac is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: dumaguete
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Default foreign property investors/purchasers to wait until peso tanks?

not all construction financed by external investment is based on dollars.
the biggest investors in this area are the koreans, they have seen a dramatic 20% slide in the won to the peso value, in the last 10 days alone, the peso is stronger against a basket of western currencies.
the usa dollar is the only one appreciating broadly against the peso at the moment, due to it's safe harbour status in the current market panic and a near decade long oversell.

dollar remittances will buoy up a peso collapse, without it the peso would be severely discounted from todays prices
(re collapses - i have a cousin in thailand who was moving $1m dollars of daddy's, give the inheritance money to the kids while they are still young, fund. he moved the money just after the bhat collapse in the asian financial crisis, well it was worth $5m to him in local assets after the depreciation- sweet deal, he invested it pretty good too)

can not see anyone being able to sell their house in the usa, uk, ireland, korea or spain for the next 2 years, unless they severely bite the bullet from perceived top of the market valuations. other western markets will be severely effected in the next year.
i can not see any of current winners (the various emirates and the russians) interested in the philippines

for the record - i call yesterday the end of the major bear run on stocks. but no major bull run beginning in the next 4-5 years(i.e. pensions for private sector workers much lower).
will check in next year to see how wrong i was with 20/20 hindsight